How predictable was Survivor Series 2021?

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the Cageside Seats crew usually provides predictions for all matches advertised on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple rating to predict any event, even when I am two months late in reporting results.

Seven different employees predict the winners of the matches held on November 21 at Survivor Series 2021. The employees took credit for correctly predicting the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that win.

Matching Cageside Seating Articles Preview for Survivor Series It also featured polls that allowed Cagesiders to influence their predictions.

The following graph contains the prediction results for these matches. The leftmost column contains the match list. Below each employee’s name, the number “1” is a valid prediction and the number “0” is an incorrect prediction. Empty boxes indicate places where forecast data is not available. The column to the far right contains the overall predictability rating for each match, and the last row shows the overall accuracy for each staff member.

The line for Charlotte Flair’s match can be interpreted as: “5 of the 8 predictions of Flair’s match were correct, which is a prediction rate of 62.5%.”

Staff predictions for Survivor Series 2021

match Geno Shun Cain CLEAR Kyle Stella Marcus Polls sum
match Geno Shun Cain CLEAR Kyle Stella Marcus Polls sum
Nakamura vs Priest 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.0
Lynch vs. Flair 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 62.5
Raw Guys vs SmackDown Guys 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 12.5
Battle Royale 25 Double Man 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 50.0
RK-Bro vs The Usos 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 50.0
Raw Women vs. SmackDown Women 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 75.0
Big E vs. Roman Reigns 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
sum 42.9 42.9 71.4 57.1 57.1 42.9 57.1 57.1 53.6

These numbers add up to 30 correct predictions and 26 incorrect predictions, which means the overall assessment of the prediction of Survivor Series It is 53.6%.

This lowers the overall predictability rating for the 2021 WWE PPVs from 70.7% to 69.1% (418 correct vs. 187 incorrect predictions). For comparison, the total predictability estimates for each year from 2015 to 2020 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, 58.7%, 63.7%, and 65.5%, respectively.

Now here are the voting percentages from Cageside community polls for the winners of these matches:

  • 30% Shinsuke Nakamura
  • 74%: Becky Lynch
  • 44% raw men
  • 31%: Omos (19% Styles, 18% T-BAR, 6% Cesaro, 5% Ricochet, 5% Zen, 16% other)
  • 63%: RK-Bro
  • 40%: raw women
  • 70%: Roman Reigns

As we all know, Damian Priest is practically unbeatable in singles matches on WWE’s main roster, so it was hard to expect him to lose to Shinsuke Nakamura on the Kickoff Show.

The traditional Survivor Series elimination matches have fooled a lot of people. It’s tempting to expect that one brand won’t win both games, but Raw once again dominated the battle for brand supremacy. The Community Voters outperformed Team Cageside in the men’s match, while Team Cageside outperformed the Community Voters in the women’s match.

It can often be difficult to decide on Battle Royal matches considering the number of wrestlers involved, but when Omos is in a match, we usually know that he will win. Plenty of community voters seem to have enjoyed this, with 18% rallied behind former RETRIBUTION member T-BAR, who rarely gets to watch TV time. raw He was very weak.

And of course, it was very easy to expect Roman Reigns to beat Big E in the main event, because Roman Reigns never lost in a PPV.

Survivor Series It was the last WWE PPV event of 2021, so the overall prediction rating for the year is 69.1%. This makes 2021 the most anticipated year for WWE PPVs since the beginning of 2015, overtaking the next highest score of 65.5% in 2020.

Roman Reigns’ record-breaking streak as world champion certainly swelled in the general prediction rankings for 2021, but it’s worth noting that 2021 was still a highly anticipated year even without the chief of clans. Matches with Roman Reigns had a predictability rating of 89.2% (66 correct vs. 8 incorrect predictions), and matches without Roman Reigns had a predictability rating of 66.3% (352 correct vs. 179 incorrect). This latest result is still above the general prediction rating for 2020 (65.5%), which was previously the most anticipated year by this measure before 2021.

Cageside Seats staff had a humble night while anticipating the winners of Survivor Series. How did you fare two months ago, Caygesider?

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